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With little economic data on the schedule, the major economic story during the week was the continued rise in oil prices, which hit a new record high of $126 per barrel. Oil prices have nearly doubled since last summer. A major Wall Street investment bank issued a forecast this week that predicted a spike in oil prices to between $150 and $200 per barrel, possibly before the end of the year. The impact of rising oil prices on mortgage markets could be either positive or negative, depending on a couple of factors. Rising oil prices leads to higher prices for goods and services, and higher inflation usually leads to higher mortgage rates. On the other hand, higher energy costs slow economic activity, which serves to reduce inflationary pressures. In general, stock investors don't like to see higher oil prices, while mortgage investors are less concerned. Mortgage rates fell a little during the week.

In the housing sector, the March Pending Home Sales index fell slightly from February, matching expectations. Pending Home Sales are a leading indicator of future housing market activity, so the next Existing and New Home Sales reports may show small declines. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) latest forecast predicted that conditions will remain soft for the first half of 2008, but that activity will pick up during the second half of the year.

Other significant news for the housing sector came out during the week as well. Fannie Mae announced that it will buy the new Jumbo Conforming mortgages for the same prices as those below the old conforming loan limit, which should make some larger mortgages more affordable. In addition, a $300 billion FHA housing loan guarantee program passed a vote in the House. More hurdles remain, as the program must be approved by the Senate and the President. If passed, this program will assist troubled borrowers in refinancing into a mortgage with more affordable terms, resulting in a reduction in the number of foreclosures.

The median price of a home sold in March dropped by 13.3 percent compared to March 2007, the biggest year-over-year price decline since a 14.6 percent plunge in July 1970.

The dismal news on new home sales followed earlier reports showing that sales of existing homes fell by 2 percent in March. Housing, which boomed for five years, has been in a prolonged slump for the past two years with sales and home prices falling at especially sharp rates in formerly boom areas of the country.

For March, sales were down in all regions of the country, dropping the most in the Northeast, a decline of 19.4 percent. Sales fell by 12.9 percent in the Midwest, 12.5 percent in the Midwest and 4.6 percent in the South.

In the Tallahassee market, sales were down 28.9% from March of 07 and the median price of a single family home was down 9.7% from March of 07. Single family home sales in the Tallahassee area in 07 was 360 and in 08 was 256, median price of a single family home in 07 was 188,800 and on 08 was 170,400.

We didn’t see the broad swings in interest rates this week as were experience in weeks past. With little new economic news for the week rates settled in for a slightly lower average then last week.

Ecnomic news was mixed for the week. The Fed is forecasting that with the recent rate cuts and the government stimulus packages will lead to faster economic growth for the remainder of the year. On the other side of the fence, the Pending Home Sales index fell more then expected in January and the index was down marginally from a year ago. Pending Home Sales is the leading indicators for the future direction of the housing market and NAR (National Association of REALTORS) is predicting flat home sales for the next several months.

WASHINGTON, D.C.

• Federal Reserve maps show key areas of concern

• What color is your state?

• Scroll down to the bottom for the website link

The Federal Reserve System now has a set of dynamic maps and data online that illustrate sub prime and alt-A mortgage loan conditions across the United States. The maps display regional variation in the condition of securitized, owner-occupied sub prime, and alt-A mortgage loans. The more intense the color, the bigger the problem or potential problem. Monthly updates are planned. The maps and data can be used to assist in the identification of existing and potential foreclosure hotspots, the Fed says. (Click on the link below to see the maps. Be advised that the site loads slowly, apparently affected by demand.)

The maps show the following information for sub prime and alt-A loans for each state and most of the counties and zip codes in the United States:

• Loans per 1,000 housing units

• Loans in foreclosure per 1,000 housing units

• Loans real estate owned (REO) per 1,000 housing units

• Share of loans that are adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs)

• Share of loans for which payments are current

• Share of loans that are 90-plus days delinquent

• Share of loans in foreclosure

• Median combined loan-to-value ratio (LTV) at origination

• Share of loans with low credit score (FICO) and high LTV at origination

• Share of loans with low- or no documentation

• Share of ARMs with initial reset in the next 12 months

• Share of loans with a late payment in the past 12 months

The maps are maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

To access the data visit: http://www2.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/

It’s true. All successful Loan Officer’s have one thing in common; a great Loan Processor.

Who is this person and why are they so important to you? The Loan Processor is truly the back-bone of any mortgage company. They bear the burden associated with the loan process. They communicate with all parties involved in the process; the underwriters, insurance agents, appraisers, inspectors, closers, title companies, escrow agents, real estate agents, the borrowers, and of course, the Loan Officer.

A great Loan Processor can take a loan and make it appear seamless and effortless. Loan Officers are responsible for the loan transaction overall, but it’s the Loan Processor that makes the loan flow through to the closing table. Loan Processors play a critical role in the success of the transaction and if they were not experienced or were not good at processing, the transaction would in all likelihood never make it to the closing table.

The job of the Loan Processor may appear easy, but it is not. They are responsible for taking various elements of the loan approval, put them together in the correct order, and making sure everything is done when and how it is supposed to done. Loan Processors deal will people that can be quite volatile and verbally abusive over issues the Processor has no control over. Because of their experience they are able to diffuse most situations and continue to process the file.

So, who is my Loan Processor?

Rose Hatch is the Processor for A & A Mortgage, Inc. Rose has been in the industry since 1998 and her vast experience and knowledge contributes to the daily success of every Loan Officer here. Because of Rose’s expertise as a Loan Processor, she is able to move the loan transaction through to closing table on time and without any hiccups. Should there ever be a snag in the process, Rose is quick to solve the issue and have the loan moving again toward closing.

By having a Loan Processor as experienced and dedicated to the client as Rose, I am able to ensure that my clients will experience a low-stress loan process and will be much happier that they decided to place their trust in me, A & A, and Rose.

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the Fed Funds Rate to 2.250 percent Tuesday while leaving the door open for future rate cuts.

Stock markets cheered the Fed's move; the Dow Jones Dark-Arts Industrial Average rallied 400 points in the wake of the announcement.

Meanwhile, the cash that fueled the stock gains had to come from somewhere and one of those places was the bond market. It's no surprise, therefore, that following the FOMC's press release, 30-year fixed rate mortgages spiked by 0.250%.

Stated more clearly, the Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate and mortgage rates went up again.

See, every time that the Federal Reserve cuts the Fed Funds Rate, it's an explicit signal the economy needs a trickle-down jumpstart.

When the Fed Funds Rate is lower, doing business is cheaper for banks, who in turn make it cheaper for businesses to do business, who in turn make it cheaper for consumers to live life.

This process can take up to a year for each rate cut or rate hike.

Meanwhile, as the changes to the Fed Funds Rate trickle their way through the economy, carrying on ordinary, day-to-day activities gets "cheaper" for everyone in the country. There's more money left for discretionary items, or investment in capital items, or whatever.

For example, the Federal Reserve has cut the Fed Funds Rate by 3.000 percent since September.

American consumers borrow $2.5 trillion on their credit cards so the 3-point reduction equates to $75,000,000,000 in interest payment savings.

You can only imagine what the reduction can do for businesses because business borrow far more money than consumers.

So, when the Fed cuts rates, it's hope is that most of these "savings" get pumped back into the economy somehow. This is how rate cuts can lead to economic growthTrillion-Dollar-Experiment .

Sometimes, though, the growth is uncontrolled.

The fancy word for this situation is "inflation" and inflation is the enemy of mortgage bonds; it erodes the value of U.S. dollars and that's the currency in which mortgage bond payments are made.

So, it makes sense that mortgage rates rise when the Fed cuts the Fed Funds Rate. By stimulating the economy, the Federal Reserve is making long-term inflation much more likely.

Some people think the Federal Reserve is the fool in the shower right now but the FOMC voters don't seem to care. They are more concerned with relieving short-term pressures on the economy and will deal with the outcome later.

Even if it is runaway inflation.

The Federal Reserve has been on a rate cutting spree once more. Many mortgage applicants are calling their mortgage representative and expecting a lower interest rate. Others who have been waiting to refinance are puzzled as to why mortgage rates have not moved lower during the recent five Fed rate cuts. This is difficult to explain to consumers who have watched a 2.25% reduction by the Fed with very little benefit in mortgage rates.

Is a Fed rate cut really good news for mortgage rates? The facts may be surprising. The Fed can only control the Discount Rate and the Fed Funds Rate. This is very different from mortgage rates.  A mortgage rate can be in effect for 30-years while a rate set by the Fed can change from one day to another.

It is often said history repeats itself. And if history is any teacher, we can learn from what happened to mortgage rates the last time the Federal Reserve was in a rate-cutting cycle.

The last time the Fed was in a lengthy rate cutting cycle was back in 2001 from January 3, 2001 to December 11, 2001. In the span of 11 months, they cut the Fed Funds rate 11 times with eight of those cuts by 50bp. This resulted in a total of 475bp or 4.75% in short-term interest rate cuts taking the Fed Funds Rate from 6.00% down to 1.75%. Now most uninformed people would naturally think because the Fed cut rates by so much during this time that mortgage rates would follow suit and trend lower as well. Not so.  Mortgage rates actually moved higher during this time of significant rate cuts because inflation, the arch enemy of bonds, gradually rose.

Now let’s take a look at what happened with the Fed’s most recent cutting cycle, the first since 2001. On September 18, 2007 the Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate by 50bp. The mortgage bond market briefly enjoyed a “knee-jerk” reaction to the Fed move by closing higher that day, but lost 140bp over the following two sessions. Then on October 31, 2007 the Fed lowered the Fed Funds rate by 25bp. The mortgage bond market responded by losing 78bp over the following five trading days. On December 11, 2007 the Fed once again lowered rates by 25bp and the mortgage bond market lost 88bp in the next three days. So far this year, the Fed delivered a surprise 75bp rate cut on January 22, 2008 and mortgage bonds lost a whopping 144bp in just 2 days. Eight days later and as widely expected, the Fed cut rates by 50bp. Within 13 days from that 50bp cut, mortgage bonds lost 269bp.

Current State of Mortgage Financing...What's Going On?

Anyone watching or reading the financial news over the last few weeks has seen a lot of angst and consternation over the state of the mortgage industry. In fact, one of the larger lenders in the US, American Home Mortgage, was forced to shut down operations recently. But why? What is happening, what does all this mean to you and most importantly... what should you be doing do right now to make sure you are protected?

Here's the scoop.

Over the past several years, many loans were made to homeowners with somewhat non-traditional or "non-conforming" situations, be it a poor credit history, inability to document income, or any number of factors that do not fit within the traditional "box" for home loans. These loans are often called "Sub-Prime", or "Alt-A", meaning that they were somewhat riskier in nature than A credit, prime, or traditional loans. Another type of "non-conforming" home loan is one where the credit and income might be perfectly fine, but the loan amount is higher than $417K, which is the current maximum loan that can be done using pools of money from mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FHLMC). If the loan amount is higher, it can certainly be done - it's called a "jumbo loan" - but the end money comes from private institutions, not from the large government sponsored entities of Fannie and Freddie.

Most non-conforming loan product rates popped significantly higher recently. Here's what happened.

The end investor for Subprime or Alt-A loans will charge a premium for taking on a pool of these loans, because they know that traditionally, they might have a higher rate of default and delinquent payments within that risky pool. But lately, default and foreclosure has been on the rise - partly due to the fact that with credit tightening and a soft real estate market, many troubled homeowners are unable to refinance or sell in order to get out of trouble. So now, these end institutions are demanding a much higher "risk premium" for taking on these pools of loans, as they see the rates of default are climbing higher.

But since these institutions are purchasing these pools of loans sometimes months after the borrower has actually closed at a given rate, this increase to the risk premium means that instead of paying $101K for a $100K loan that will bear interest, they may only be willing to pay $95K for that $100K mortgage to account for the risk. Multiply that times thousands upon thousands of loans...and you have millions upon millions of dollars in loss for the company trying to sell the pool at a much lower price than they were expecting. This is called a "liquidity crisis", and is exactly what happened to American Home Mortgage - there was no mismanagement, but they simply got caught holding too many "hot potato" loans, forced to sell them at massive losses...and eventually they had to make the decision to close the doors and stop the bleeding.

Further, even when a lender is able to take some losses, they may be subject to a "margin call". This means that as their losses and risk premiums increase, the value of their loan portfolio decreases. As the value decreases, the credit lines that are secured by those portfolios begin to issue margin calls as the value of the asset that they are secured on is now diminished. This is exactly like margin calls in the Stock market. If you have a loan against a Stock that is losing value, you will get a "margin call" and need to pay down the loan, as the underlying Stock is losing too much value to be considered adequate collateral any longer. So for the big lenders, as their portfolio is losing value due to increased risk premiums and losses...the margin calls start coming in, and they are required to pay down their balances. In turn, this means that they have less availability to fund their new loans, which then exacerbates the problem.

In response to seeing this situation play out in the demise of American Home Mortgage, lenders of other non-conforming loan products increased their interest rates dramatically almost overnight to be better prepared - and likely over-prepared - for increased risk premiums down the road. Even though loans above $417K are not presently suffering from increased delinquencies like the Subprime and Alt-A loans are, these rates popped higher as well, because they are being purchased by smaller private entities that can't afford to take on any margin of risk.

What happens next? The major damage is probably already done, and the present situation will likely settle out over the coming year. Lenders will stop pulling products off the shelf, and the rates on products that have moved so significantly higher now should trend lower down the road as delinquency rates stabilize.

But here are a few important things YOU should do right now:

ONE: Even if you are not presently in the market for a home loan of any type, make sure that your credit standing is as solid as possible. Many people in the market for a home loan didn't expect they would have a need, and didn't plan in advance to ensure their credit would qualify them for the best possible financing. With no immediate need for a home loan, time is on your side... why don't we take a few minutes together and just make sure you are prepared, should a need arise down the road? Call or email me right away.

TWO: If you are in the market for a home loan, or know someone who is - understand that now is the time to be working with a real qualified professional who can keep you informed of changes in the market and get your loan funded quickly. Now is NOT the time to be playing the risky game of trying to scour the entire nation to find someone who promises to save you a paltry amount on costs, or deliver a rate that seems too good to be true.

Your home and your financing are just too important, and times have changed. I am here to help and advise during these volatile times - and would welcome calls from you, your friends, family, neighbors or coworkers.